Which landmarks or major infrastructure will suffer a military or terrorist attack before the end of 2030? [ADD ANSWERS]
Which landmarks or major infrastructure will suffer a military or terrorist attack before the end of 2030? [ADD ANSWERS]
34
2.4kṀ3195
2031
97%
Kerch Bridge (Crimea)
35%
Yamal-Europe Pipeline
26%
Belo Monte Dam (Brazil)
25%
Guri Dam (Venezuela)
24%
Itaipu Dam (Brazil and Paraguay)
24%
Vatican City
20%
Suez Canal (Egypt)
19%
Xiluodu Dam (China)
17%
Baihetan Dam (China)
17%
Three Gorges Dam (China)
16%
The Great Sphinx of Giza (Egypt)
15%
Panama Canal (Panama)
12%
The Louvre (Paris, France)
12%
The Empire State Building (US)
12%
Statue of Liberty (US)
12%
Golden Gate Bridge (United States)
11%
Channel Tunnel (UK and France)
10%
Hoover Dam (US)
10%
Eiffel Tower (Paris, France)
10%
Port of Houston (US)

Starting from the creation of this market on April 10th 2024. I reserve the right to N/A any redundant, inappropriate, or overly obscure additions. Attacks which are obviously manmade will resolve Yes even if the specific perpetrator is unclear. The threshold for an attack to count is 1 or more deaths, and/or 5+ injuries, and/or over $100,000 in property damage. Attacks need to be direct; a death from naval conflict in the red sea proper will not count for the Suez Canal.

For disasters which are too mysterious to confidently label as intentionally manmade or not, resolution will require either a solid credit claim by the group perpetrating the attack, or broad international consensus as to blame. If such a case is still deeply ambiguous after 6 months or the end of the market (whichever comes second), it will resolve 50/50.

Here is a sister market resolving at the end of 2025:

Economics
Wars
Terrorism
Energy
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answered11mo
Vatican City
bought Ṁ10 Vatican City NO11mo

This is as big/general as an option can be. Technically it’s smaller than some other options like the pipeline, and it’s made up of like 20 landmarks all adjoining each other in a tight cluster. There aren’t a lot of cases like this.

answered11mo
The Empire State Building (US)
bought Ṁ10 The Empire State Bui... NO11mo

@traders I didn’t originally think that private buildings would count as infrastructure for these markets, but if everyone disagrees I’ll allow it. Thoughts?

11mo

@Panfilo Why would it matter who owns the building? Serious question, I get the impulse but I can't think of a strong reason to exclude private property as long as it's important to the economy in a public way.

If you do disqualify private buildings, I think you'd need to disqualify privately owned roads and bridges too.

11mo

@Kolyin I think it's less about ownership than about the Great Sphinx of Giza, the Empire State building, and the Statue of Liberty not being "infrastructure".

Maybe rename to "pieces of global infrastructure or landmarks"?

11mo

@Panfilo Okay, rephrased the title.

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