What government positions will Mike Johnson hold for any length of time in the rest of his life?
What government positions will Mike Johnson hold for any length of time in the rest of his life?
9
650Ṁ4032051
27%
Senator
24%
Attorney General
22%
Governor
20%
Ambassador
19%
Mayor
18%
Cabinet Secretary
18%
Chief of Staff
14%
Vice President
12%
Supreme Court Justice
10%
President
Starting from this market's creation. Terms used refer to the United States presidency, congress, states, and so on in whatever their most obvious normal meaning is. Note that this market refers to time served, not elections won or appointments attempted.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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