My Market Correction Mana Grants program has now granted M$52,002 (3*12,500+2*7,000+500+2*1) to various Manifold users, of which M$21,701 (3*5,000+2*3,250+500+2*0.5) was funded by me. In the past, I also granted a friend M$1,000 for betting on political markets.

For this market, bounties, loans, deals, and mana given as sympathy for market criteria or as "moral referral bonuses" are not considered grants. (These are all reasons I've given people mana.)

Who Would I Grant?

Have you looked at a market probability recently and thought "That seems off, but I can’t afford to correct it"? Or maybe:

• you have an idea for a worthwhile betting strategy that you’d implement or write a bot for!

• you’ll do a bit more research than other bettors on markets in a certain category!

• you’ll correct markets faster or more thoroughly after news events!

• you have more expertise, better instincts, or a stronger record than the markets in a certain area!

• you just have a good-looking portfolio graph — remember, it’s okay if you lost big bets as long as they could’ve been positive expected value!

• you have another cool idea or rationale!

I'd prefer to fund proposals that focus on markets where knowing the probabilities add value. This can include personal markets as well as those about world affairs! But I'm probably not funding your strategy for winning self-resolving markets. You can convince me why the markets you’ll focus on are important — why it’s helpful for people to know their probabilities, but it’s also totally fine to have a general purpose strategy that will improve the accuracy of markets in general.

The Big Picture

In today's mana economy, I don't think there are as many users who fit this criteria and are super capital-constrained. But maybe there are some. If you feel like you might deserve a grant, feel free to post in the comments, and I'll consider it!

Note also that @MarcusAbramovitch has been willing to offer profit-share arrangements in the past, and he's an order of magnitude richer than me on Manifold right now.

Deadline for this market is 11:30 PT, just to make New Year's Eve slightly more interesting.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.