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Will China convene and mediate peace negotiations between representatives of Ukraine and Russia by the end of 2024?
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1kṀ6385resolved Jan 2
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Xi Jinping has apparently attempted to offer a political settlement to the hostilities in Ukraine. This on the heels of secretly brokering normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Clearly Xi is getting ambitious globally, but does he have what it takes to broker a peace deal between Putin and Zelenskyy?
Resolves YES if China convenes representatives of Russia and Ukraine and exclusively mediates peace talks between the parties. Does not matter where it happens or the outcome, just that all three parties are acknowledged participants in active negotiations and no other parties like NATO, the US or EU also participate as mediators.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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