Will Russia formally cede any territory before 2025?
14
236
Ṁ860Ṁ310
Dec 31
9%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves Yes if Russia officially states that any territory it regrads as part of the country at the start of 2023 is not part of Russia anymore before January 1, 2025. This question is not about actual control or third-party recognition.
The obvious candidates are the newly annexed regions (Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts) and Crimea.
See also:
Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
@BTE No, this question is not about control but rather formal cessation. Russia has left Kherson, for example, but still considers the city to be a part of Russia.
Related questions
Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?
4% chance
Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of 2025?
27% chance
Will Russia propose a ceasefire in 2024?
50% chance
Will any part of pre-2014 Russia territory become an internationally recognized independent state by the end of 2040?
55% chance
Will Russia make a territorial claim in Antarctica, before 2030?
23% chance
Will Russia formally cede any territory before 2030?
15% chance
Will the territorial unity of the Russian Federation fragment into two or more sovereign nations before 2026?
19% chance
Will the Russian invasion be over by 2025?
12% chance
Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2025?
16% chance
Will the Russian Ukraine war ends before 2025?
15% chance