Will Russia formally cede any territory before 2025?
15
Ṁ1kṀ994resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves Yes if Russia officially states that any territory it regrads as part of the country at the start of 2023 is not part of Russia anymore before January 1, 2025. This question is not about actual control or third-party recognition.
The obvious candidates are the newly annexed regions (Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts) and Crimea.
See also:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ52 | |
| 2 | Ṁ39 | |
| 3 | Ṁ34 | |
| 4 | Ṁ16 | |
| 5 | Ṁ8 |
Sort by:
@BTE No, this question is not about control but rather formal cessation. Russia has left Kherson, for example, but still considers the city to be a part of Russia.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Russia's net territorial gain in February 2026 exceed 400km²?
29% chance
Will Russia formally cede any territory before 2030?
32% chance
Will Russia formally cede Crimea before 2030?
7% chance
Will Ukraine cede land to russia?
42% chance
Will Russia control at least 85% of the four annexed oblasts at the end of October 2026?
45% chance
Will Russia make territorial gains in Ukraine in 2026?
95% chance
Will any part of pre-2014 Russia territory become an internationally recognized independent state by the end of 2040?
59% chance