An Il-76 airplane has crashed in Russia's Belgorod region. Russia claims it was transporting over 60 Ukrainian prisoners. Some Ukrainian media initially said it was "the work of the Ukrainan [forces]", but then withdrew/redacted the claim.
Will it be clear that Ukraine was responsible for the downing? I will resolve yes in case of an official Ukrainian confirmation, no in case Russia withdraws the allegation, and to (Western) media/expert consensus otherwise. If the answer is not clear by the end of the year, I will either resolve N/A or extend the deadline.
Update: Extended until June 30, 2025.
See also:
Update 2025-07-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has announced their plan to resolve this market to YES.
This is based on the market's 'media/expert consensus' criteria, citing specific media and intelligence reports. The creator is allowing a one-week period for any objections before finalizing the resolution. Please see the linked comment for details.
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Based on reports I've read, I have little doubt that the plane was shot down by Ukraine. Ukrainian media originally reported it was the case; the claim was later retracted, but Ukraine never consistently asserted that it hadn't shot it down, concentrating mainly on Russia not having provided the necessary information about a POW transport. According to media reports, French and US intelligence said in the immediate aftermath that the plane was shot down by Ukraine, and a NYT article from January 2025, a year after the crash, comes to the same conclusion.
Thus, I plan to resolve this "yes". If someone has any objections or additional information, please let me know within a week - after that, I'll resolve accordingly.