Has Ukraine shot down the IL-76 plane? | Manifold

Has Ukraine shot down the IL-76 plane?

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Jun 30

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An Il-76 airplane has crashed in Russia's Belgorod region. Russia claims it was transporting over 60 Ukrainian prisoners. Some Ukrainian media initially said it was "the work of the Ukrainan [forces]", but then withdrew/redacted the claim.

Will it be clear that Ukraine was responsible for the downing? I will resolve yes in case of an official Ukrainian confirmation, no in case Russia withdraws the allegation, and to (Western) media/expert consensus otherwise. If the answer is not clear by the end of the year, I will either resolve N/A or extend the deadline.

Update: Extended until June 30, 2025.

See also:

Ukraine-Russia war

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I don't know if new evidence has emerged over the past year - please tell me if you've seen anything. If not, I'll extend the market by another 6 months, say.

Whoever's fault it was, it was Russia's, for invading and starting a genocidal war.

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