Has Ukraine shot down the IL-76 plane?
Plus
22
Ṁ1307Dec 31
90%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
An Il-76 airplane has crashed in Russia's Belgorod region. Russia claims it was transporting over 60 Ukrainian prisoners. Some Ukrainian media initially said it was "the work of the Ukrainan [forces]", but then withdrew/redacted the claim.
Will it be clear that Ukraine was responsible for the downing? I will resolve yes in case of an official Ukrainian confirmation, no in case Russia withdraws the allegation, and to (Western) media/expert consensus otherwise. If the answer is not clear by the end of the year, I will either resolve N/A or extend the deadline.
See also:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
What did the Il-76 shot down on 1/24 carry?
Will Ukraine destroy at least 5 strategic bombers this year, preventing their further use for shelling Ukraine?
49% chance
Will Ukraine use British Storm Shadow cruise missiles to attack the Kerch Bridge?
25% chance
Will Ukraine use a Storm Shadow missile into Russian territory by the end of 2025?
72% chance
Will a NATO aircraft shoot down a missile or drone fired towards a target in Ukraine before 2027?
61% chance
Will Ukraine fire an ATACMS missile into Russia before September 1st 2026?
82% chance
Will Russia nuke Ukraine?
7% chance
What was the reason of the helicopter crash in Kyiv on Jan 18?
Will Russia nuke Ukraine?
8% chance