Has Ukraine shot down the IL-76 plane?
20
164
Ṁ1.2KṀ410
Dec 31
91%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
An Il-76 airplane has crashed in Russia's Belgorod region. Russia claims it was transporting over 60 Ukrainian prisoners. Some Ukrainian media initially said it was "the work of the Ukrainan [forces]", but then withdrew/redacted the claim.
Will it be clear that Ukraine was responsible for the downing? I will resolve yes in case of an official Ukrainian confirmation, no in case Russia withdraws the allegation, and to (Western) media/expert consensus otherwise. If the answer is not clear by the end of the year, I will either resolve N/A or extend the deadline.
See also:
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?
22% chance
Will an Ukrainian F-16 score an air-to-air kill of a manned Russian aircraft in 2024?
44% chance
Will Ukraine destroy at least 5 strategic bombers this year, preventing their further use for shelling Ukraine?
52% chance
Will Russia shoot down an F-16 over Ukraine before the end of 2025?
62% chance
Will Russia shoot down a manned NATO military aircraft before 2025?
17% chance
Will a passenger aircraft be shot down in the Middle East during the current Iran - Israel conflict?
11% chance
Will Ukraine suffer nuclear power plant meltdowns during the Russia war?
8% chance
Will a NATO aircraft shoot down a missile or drone fired towards a target in Ukraine before 2027?
51% chance
Will Ukraine use British Storm Shadow cruise missiles to attack the Kerch Bridge?
16% chance