An Il-76 airplane has crashed in Russia's Belgorod region. Russia claims it was transporting over 60 Ukrainian prisoners. Some Ukrainian media initially said it carried S-300 missiles and was "the work of the Ukrainan [forces]", but then withdrew/redacted the claim.
What did the plane carry? I will resolve to every significant type of cargo/kind of passanger according to (Western) media/expert consensus. If the answers are not clear by market expiration, I will either resolve N/A or extend the deadline. I may resolve early if the answers seem clear.
Please only add specific and non-trivial answers, not e.g. "things" or "its own crew"; I will delete anything else.
Update: Extended until June 30, 2025.
See also:
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ342 | |
| 2 | Ṁ149 | |
| 3 | Ṁ56 | |
| 4 | Ṁ34 | |
| 5 | Ṁ23 |
Resolving based on the April interview by the Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs which was found by @a_l_e_x. I agree that, while the plane could have theoretically carried missiles as well, it is exceedingly unlikely.
Ukraine's Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs mentions in this interview that the IL-76 was carrying prisoners of war whose remains have since been returned to Ukraine
I suppose it's possible that it was also carrying missiles, but I'm not sure what more could be done to prove a negative in this kind of situation
@a_l_e_x Thanks, I didn't know about the interview. Seems pretty clear-cut. I'll wait for another day in case there are any objections, but as the things stand, I'd resolve "Prisoners" yes and "missiles" no.
Russia claimed in December 2024 that it returned the bodies of Ukrainian POWs killed in the crash. If confirmed, this would resolve the respective option to "yes", but not necessarily mean the "missiles" option is wrong. Unless anyone can point me to evidence on either question, I will extend the market by another 6 months.
Shortly after the event, there were indications that it was "likely" there were Ukrainian prisoners on board; however, it wasn't definite, and I haven't seen any reliable new information on this. If you have any relevant links, please provide them; otherwise, I'll extend the deadline until the end of the year.
“A Russian plane shot down with a Patriot missile was probably carrying Ukrainian prisoners of war, U.S. officials say.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/08/us/politics/ukraine-russia-patriot-missile.html
@komplexkonjugat I meant this as a mass noun, as in "any prisoners", which I think includes one prisoner
