What did the Il-76 shot down on 1/24 carry?
What did the Il-76 shot down on 1/24 carry?
30
1kṀ3152
Jun 30
94%
Ukrainian prisoners
12%
Missiles
Resolved
N/A
No Prisoners of War [clarification pending]

An Il-76 airplane has crashed in Russia's Belgorod region. Russia claims it was transporting over 60 Ukrainian prisoners. Some Ukrainian media initially said it carried S-300 missiles and was "the work of the Ukrainan [forces]", but then withdrew/redacted the claim.


What did the plane carry? I will resolve to every significant type of cargo/kind of passanger according to (Western) media/expert consensus. If the answers are not clear by market expiration, I will either resolve N/A or extend the deadline. I may resolve early if the answers seem clear.

Please only add specific and non-trivial answers, not e.g. "things" or "its own crew"; I will delete anything else.

Update: Extended until June 30, 2025.

See also:

Russia
Ukraine
Ukraine-Russia war
Aviation
plane crash
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5mo

Russia claimed in December 2024 that it returned the bodies of Ukrainian POWs killed in the crash. If confirmed, this would resolve the respective option to "yes", but not necessarily mean the "missiles" option is wrong. Unless anyone can point me to evidence on either question, I will extend the market by another 6 months.

11mo

Shortly after the event, there were indications that it was "likely" there were Ukrainian prisoners on board; however, it wasn't definite, and I haven't seen any reliable new information on this. If you have any relevant links, please provide them; otherwise, I'll extend the deadline until the end of the year.

11mo

Market extended until EOY.

Grace Kind ♠︎ boughtṀ71Ukrainian prisoners YES
1y

“A Russian plane shot down with a Patriot missile was probably carrying Ukrainian prisoners of war, U.S. officials say.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/08/us/politics/ukraine-russia-patriot-missile.html

answered1y
No Prisoners of War [clarification pending]
1y

How is this different from buying "no" on "Ukrainian prisoners of war"?

1y

@PS Since there was no reply, resolving this N/A

1y

@PS How many Ukrainian prisoners need to be confirmed for the "Ukrainian prisoners" to resolve YES?

1y

@Irigi Any; one would be enough.

1y

@PS wouldn't prisoners imply at least two?

1y

@komplexkonjugat I meant this as a mass noun, as in "any prisoners", which I think includes one prisoner

1y

https://t.me/nevzorovtv/13691
https://t.me/nevzorovtv/13693

1y

This hasn't been resolved yet! Plz change

1y

@Lorelai What do you mean?

1y

@PS we don't know what was on the plane yet?

1y

@Lorelai I'm also a noob so maybe I got it wrong and you haven't "resolved"

1y

@Lorelai No, the question is not resolved, you are welcome to continue betting : )

1y

@PS oh confusing ahahaha thanks

1y

@Lorelai A resolved question looks like this

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