Will Manifold have a day over 1100 engaged users in Aug?

1.4K

Ṁ180K

Ṁ1.6K

resolved Aug 15

Resolved

YES

ALL

An engaged user is a user who has traded in, commented on, or created a question on at least 2 out of 7 days in each of the past 3 weeks.

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ4,566
2		Ṁ1,873
3		Ṁ1,371
4		Ṁ684
5		Ṁ178

29 Comments

69 Holders

495 Trades

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predicted NO

IT's OVER

predicted NO

Ripperino. This was fun <3

predicted NO

Nobody saw anything:

predicted NO

@JamesColiar Bruh….

sold Ṁ7 of NO

GG!

sold Ṁ35 of NO

1104 You all just barely made it.

sold Ṁ6 of NO

@parhizj So close! Happy with my loss :)

predicted NO

@parhizj Let’s all move to the 1200 now lol

bought Ṁ50 of NO

It doesn't update at midnight?

predicted YES

@cc6 I think Manifold runs a bunch of scripts at low priority at midnight, and they take time. From looking at when past markets like this one got "please resolve" comments, maybe it'll be two hours or so.

predicted NO

In case anyone still thinks this would resolve YES… This is a lagging indicator of what the engaged user number will be.

predicted YES

@esusatyo Calling it: 1101 engaged users today, this market resolves YES by the skin of its teeth. You heard it here first.

I don't have a crystal ball though. Could be a few higher or lower. But I'm hoping for 1101.

If you're right though, now is a great time to buy some NO before our hopes are dashed by today's number coming out and confirming us YES betters' worst fears: that peak engagement was the day before yesterday. Better get in before that happens!

predicted NO

@chrisjbillington x)

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@chrisjbillington I hedged myself on the 1200 market. That one also seems to be overweight.

bought Ṁ2,000 of YES

@chrisjbillington Haha way to egg them on. Let's aim for 1130 today :)

@chrisjbillington Really impressive btw your prediction, off by just 3!

predicted YES

@vlovic Predicting the past isn't too hard, it's the future that's the problem ;).

bought Ṁ12 of NO

I don't understand people betting YES at such high odds. Given all the other data we have available to us, I'd say the chance of this particular spike reaching 1101, is 45% max. So unless you think there's going to be a surge at a later time in August, why bet YES at 85-95%?

predicted YES

@JamesColiar This is not something you need to follow, but wait until tomorrow's numbers come out and then bet accordingly.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

If the New User Retention stat from the same page is to believe, it’s very unlikely the number will go much higher.

predicted NO

EVERYONE STOP POSTING, LEAVE THE SITE, LIVE YOUR LIFE, YOU ONLY GOT ONE, WHAT IF IT"S YOUR LAST DAY

bought Ṁ10 of NO

👀

bought Ṁ154 of NO

Gamble time.

bought Ṁ3 of NO

@PC My man's got faith.

bought Ṁ54 of NO

A slightly safer version of the market to gamble on, if you're a bit more risk averse:

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@JamesColiar I was looking at the flattening curve yesterday just hoping, and I bet on several of these markets lol. I think there is BIG gambling potential here...

predicted NO

@SophusCorry gambling potential? My entire league depends on these markets xD

predicted NO