Will I drop out of a PhD within 3 years?
Will I drop out of a PhD within 3 years?
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I will be starting a PhD in chemical engineering at MIT this Fall. I'm aiming to graduate in 3 years (see linked market below). This question asks whether I will drop out of the program before the end of academic year 3/start of academic year 4.
Apr 24, 12:22am: Will I still be trying to get a PhD in 3 years? → Will I drop out of a PhD within 3 years?
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no way! you’re probably the most committed person i know, and you seem very excited about this next chapter
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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