Will I graduate with a PhD in 3 years?

Question

I am starting a Ph.D. in Chemical Engineering at MIT this Fall. My aim is to complete a condensed course of study, and graduate in 3 years, to match the timeline for the research portion of a Ph.D. CEP degree. Will I have graduated by the end of the 3rd academic year?

If I have successfully defended my thesis and graduated with a Ph.D. (or Sc.D.) by the end of year 3, this market resolves "YES". In all other circumstances, this market resolves "NO".

I will not know until November 2023 which PI I will be working with. I will answer additional questions in the comments.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 19% chance (15 traders, as of Feb 4, 2026).