Resolves YES when I complete my Ph.D. (measured by successfully defending my thesis) or NO if I have not done so by the close date (5 academic years after my start).

I appear to be moving at a pace where this seems plausible but research is unpredictable. There are also potential reasons why I may try to do a 6th year even if not strictly necessary (funding isn't necessarily guaranteed for a 6th year but can be obtained sometimes). Currently though I'd like to graduate in 5 if I can.

Since my personal decisions can influence this market's outcome significantly, I won't bet on it.