Will any wild-type poliovirus (WPV1) cases be reported in 2025?
Basic
5
Ṁ82
2025
50%
chance

Wild-type poliovirus (WPV1) has been the target of a decades-long global vaccination campaign. While vaccine-derived polioviruses still result in hundreds of cases yearly, mainly in Africa, only 17 cases of WPV1 have been detected across 3 countries (Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Mozambique) in the last 12 months.

This market will resolve YES if any WPV1 cases are reported by polioeradication.org in 2025. Resolves NO if no instances of WPV1 are reported. If polioeradication.org stops tracking these numbers, but a similar credible source is available, an alternative data source can be used for resolution.

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https://polioeradication.org/polio-today/polio-now/wild-poliovirus-list/

Note that the dates on that page are dates of publications, not cases. Click the latest one to see the actual numbers.

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