Resolves according to the following website:
Inspired by https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-there-be-100-or-more-human-cas-dItlZpthlz# and similar markets.
Be skeptical about the validity of questionable / useless AI summaries below:
Update 2025-10-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the number of cases stays at 78 (i.e., does not reach 100, 150, 200, or 250), all answer options resolve to NO.
Update 2025-12-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the data source does not have December 31 data at market close, the creator will record the current value, re-open the market until new data is available, and interpolate the value for December 31.
Update 2026-01-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will wait for the data source to update before resolving the lowest option. Higher options have already been resolved.
1,000People are also trading
As mentioned last week, I will wait for https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/students.for.health.security.2024/viz/USH5N1OutbreakTracker/Dashboard1
to update before I resolve the lowest option, but I have now resolved the higher ones.
At market close, I will check whether the data on https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/students.for.health.security.2024/viz/USH5N1OutbreakTracker/Dashboard1 is from December 31. If not, I will record it and re-open the market until there is new data and will interpolate the value for December 31.