How many human cases of H5N1 in the US will there be by the end of 2025? | Manifold

How many human cases of H5N1 in the US will there be by the end of 2025?

4

100Ṁ148

Dec 31

309 cases

expected

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

75%

80 or more

35%

160 or more

29%

320 or more

22%

640 or more

Resolves according to the following website:

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/students.for.health.security.2024/viz/USH5N1OutbreakTracker/Dashboard1

Inspired by https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-there-be-100-or-more-human-cas-dItlZpthlz# and similar markets.

Will there be 100 or more human cases of H5N1 in the US by the end of 2025?

80% chance. resolves YES if 100 or more people are infected by the end of 2025 in the US, as reported by this website https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/students.for.health.security.2024/viz/USH5N1OutbreakTracker/Dashboard1 [image]

Infectious Disease

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