This market will resolve YES if and when a nuclear weapon has detonated in a military conflict, harming or killing soldiers or civilians of at least one of the conflicting parties.   Reports in leading international media will be used as evidence.

The resolution date for this market will shift based on market odds. It will move closer as the odds increase, and further into the future as the odds decrease. This will allow for an assessment of when the resolution event will occur. Initially, with 50% odds, the resolution date is set 50 years in the future. If the odds rise to 75%, the resolution date changes to 25 years in the future. At 90%, to 5 years; at 95%, to 1 year; at 98%, to 1 week and at 99% to 1 day in the future. Accordingly, if the odds decrease to 25% resolution date changes to 75 years; at 10%, to 250 years and at 1% to 1000 years. I have a predefined list of resolution dates for each value between 1% and 99% odds and will adjust the resolution after each trade that changes the odds by at least 1%. 

The market will never resolve to NO, since there can be no proof that a nuclear weapon will never detonate in a military conflict.