Any detonation, including accidental and tests will count. Partial detonations count, but failed (duds) do not.
Will resolve YES if:
Before January 1, 2025: any entity openly admits to detonating a nuclear warhead either as an act of war, as a test, or by accident.
Before January 1, 2025: evidence emerges that a warhead may have been secretly detonated. In this case market will resolve once relevant authorities come to a concrete conclusion.
Will resolve NO otherwise.
I will not participate in this market.
Related questions
What do you think of this?
@GCS This is a test of a "nuclear capable" drone system. I can't find any sources alleging any detonation occured.
I agree. I think people are trading on I other markets based on this language from Wikipedia.
" North Korea announces that it has tested a nuclear weapon delivered by an unmanned underwater drone system in the Sea of Japan. (Reuters)"
@BrunoParga Though I understand this is a joke (and actually a pretty good one I must say), I'll still provide an answer just in case anyone else might have this question or disagree with my assessment;
A nuclear warhead can have a partial detonation in the sense that it's predicted yield is not met, but some nuclear fission (or fusion) still occurs. I will count any partial detonations in which some non-trivial amount of the final yield was nuclear. In the case of a fusion bomb, I will count it a detonation if the fission primer succeeds (to some degree, same as if it were a fission bomb by itself) even if the warhead fails to achieve fusion.