Will a nuclear warhead be detonated in 2024?
45
428
830
2025
26%
chance
North Korea openly tests a delivery system
Jan 19
Russia explicitly threatens nuclear attack
Mar 1

Any detonation, including accidental and tests will count. Partial detonations count, but failed (duds) do not.

Will resolve YES if:

  • Before January 1, 2025: any entity openly admits to detonating a nuclear warhead either as an act of war, as a test, or by accident.

  • Before January 1, 2025: evidence emerges that a warhead may have been secretly detonated. In this case market will resolve once relevant authorities come to a concrete conclusion.

Will resolve NO otherwise.

I will not participate in this market.

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If they tested delivery system they might conduct the detonation test by the end of the year. I think the raise of the probability is reasonable.

@GCS This is a test of a "nuclear capable" drone system. I can't find any sources alleging any detonation occured.

predicts YES

@Pykess

I agree. I think people are trading on I other markets based on this language from Wikipedia.

" North Korea announces that it has tested a nuclear weapon delivered by an unmanned underwater drone system in the Sea of Japan. (Reuters)"

Can nuclear weapons have partial detonation? 🤔 I thought either the process as a whole succeeded, or it failed. It is.... atomic 😎

(This is just a stupid joke, no need for an answer)

@BrunoParga Though I understand this is a joke (and actually a pretty good one I must say), I'll still provide an answer just in case anyone else might have this question or disagree with my assessment;

A nuclear warhead can have a partial detonation in the sense that it's predicted yield is not met, but some nuclear fission (or fusion) still occurs. I will count any partial detonations in which some non-trivial amount of the final yield was nuclear. In the case of a fusion bomb, I will count it a detonation if the fission primer succeeds (to some degree, same as if it were a fission bomb by itself) even if the warhead fails to achieve fusion.