Will there be Government shutdown (partial or total) in Q1 of 2024?
161
678
1.5K
Apr 1
16%
chance

Congress passed a laddered CR in November of 2023. This has 2 dates -- on the first date funding for some government agencies ends and on the 2nd date -- the funding for the rest ends.

This will resolve to yes -- even if any one government agency -- shuts down in Q1 of 2024 because Congress fails to pass legislation to continue funding (either in form of CR or a full legislative bill for the entire Fiscal year).

End of Q1 2024 is defined as Midnight of 31st March 2023

Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Sort by:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/29/us/politics/house-stopgap-spending-bill.html

Well new days to watch are March 8th and March 22nd. Let us see ....

Will not be able to resolve this Saturday 😂

Alright nobody panic because ...

reposted

Alright nobody panic but...

Why it matters: House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) will have to choose in coming weeks between a fight with Democrats that threatens a shutdown, or a deal with Democrats that threatens his job.

"People are predicting a shutdown even if it's just for a few days," a GOP lawmaker recently told Axios.

They're either "close to reaching a deal or it's about to blow up," one subcommittee chair recently told a fellow House Republican.

what is the second date?

@AbhinavSrinivas You can look it up -- but both the dates were in January. They passed a temporary CR to get past both the dates -- but not the full annual funding needed. It looks like there is strong possibility of a real shutdown in Q1 or Q2. The short term funding in January moved the two dates to March 1 and 8th I believe. So before then either another CR (Doh!) or a full annual funding Or I guess nothing -- leading to shutdown.

bought Ṁ200 YES

The House will only have two days before the shutdown to broker a deal after returning from recess. That's not a lot of time to negotiate a deal.

predicts NO

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/12/us/politics/spending-deal-johnson-shutdown.html

Speaker Mike Johnson said on Friday that he stood by the spending deal he negotiated with Democrats to avert a government shutdown, spurning demands from ultraconservatives who have pressured him to jettison the agreement.

Interesting -- Let us see how this will playout. Another Speaker fight?

predicts NO

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/11/us/politics/right-pressures-johnson-to-abandon-spending-deal.html

Right Wing Pressures Johnson to Abandon Spending Deal to Avert Shutdown

Speaker Mike Johnson said he was talking with his ultraconservative colleagues about walking away from the agreement he struck with Democrats but had “made no commitments.”

bought Ṁ10 of YES

https://x.com/bresreports/status/1745498221625885006?s=46&t=xZJukcqNG-sbqpIpgunVPA

If this is true - big if - it would probably lead to shutdown & would mark the 2nd time a GOP speaker made a deal with Democrats & then reneged.

predicts NO

Far Right Balks as Congress Begins Push to Enact Spending Deal

With little time to spare before a shutdown deadline, Speaker Mike Johnson will have to navigate the same political currents that did in his predecessor.