Will Yudkowsky non-secretly write a >5k-word non-Glow fic by 2025-01-01?
Will Yudkowsky non-secretly write a >5k-word non-Glow fic by 2025-01-01?
15
1kṀ2968resolved Oct 21
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES iff, by 2025-01-01, he takes credit for any >5k-word piece of fiction posted after 2023-10-01, not counting Glowfic.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ771 | |
| 2 | Ṁ43 | |
| 3 | Ṁ37 | |
| 4 | Ṁ31 | |
| 5 | Ṁ19 |
Sort by:
bought Ṁ1,000 YES5mo
This thread on X (counting the original post and several replies) is fiction and is more than 5k words in length: https://x.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1767710372306530562
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast before the end of 2025?
18% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky work for Anthropic OR OpenAI in any role before the end of 2025?
3% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky create a tulpa/headmate or define himself as a plural system before January 1st 2026.
3% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky get fully blaked before 2027?
19% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be quoted at a White House press briefing again by the end of 2025?
23% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky run for President of the United States by 2060?
4% chance
Will I significantly deconvert Eliezer Yudkowsky from Bayesianism by the end of 2025?
2% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky work for any major AI-related entity by 2027?
20% chance
By 2028, will Eliezer Yudkowsky announce he's in love with an AI girlfriend?
3% chance
Will I write Dungeon Meshi fic [includes glowfic] before 2024 is out?
40% chance