Will Yudkowsky non-secretly write a >5k-word non-Glow fic by 2025-01-01?
Plus
15
Ṁ2968resolved Oct 21
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES iff, by 2025-01-01, he takes credit for any >5k-word piece of fiction posted after 2023-10-01, not counting Glowfic.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ771 | |
2 | Ṁ43 | |
3 | Ṁ37 | |
4 | Ṁ31 | |
5 | Ṁ19 |
Sort by:
This thread on X (counting the original post and several replies) is fiction and is more than 5k words in length: https://x.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1767710372306530562
@Tulip ...facepalm. I totally forgot I was in charge of this market; I thought I was getting notifications merely because I'd subscribed to it, as seemed in character for me. Sorry for the trouble!
Related questions
Related questions
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky get fully blaked before 2027?
19% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be quoted at a White House press briefing again by the end of 2025?
26% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky work for any major AI-related entity by 2027?
20% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast before the end of 2025?
16% chance
Will I write Dungeon Meshi fic [includes glowfic] before 2024 is out?
40% chance
Will Eliezer Yudowsky become romantically involved with an AI before 2030?
15% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky work for Anthropic OR OpenAI in any role before the end of 2025?
11% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky reveal the text of the conversations from the AI box escape experiment by the end of 2030?
11% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be found to have committed fraud before 2030?
4% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky and Aella have a child by the end of 2029?
5% chance