Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secures more seats in the House of Councillors following the election scheduled for July 20, 2025, compared to their current standing. Conversely, it will resolve to "No" if the LDP maintains or loses seats. Official results from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications will serve as the primary source for resolution.

Background

In the 2022 House of Councillors election, the LDP won 63 of the 125 contested seats, bringing their total to 119 seats in the 248-member chamber. Since then defections and by-elections reduced the number of current LDP Councillors to 115.

In the October 2024 general election for the House of Representatives, the LDP lost its majority, securing only 191 seats, down from 259 in 2021. (japan-forward.com) This shift has led to a minority government under Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.

Considerations

The upcoming election is set against a backdrop of political challenges for the LDP, including the loss of their lower house majority and recent scandals. Additionally, opposition parties have been working towards unification to challenge the ruling coalition more effectively. These factors may influence the LDP's performance in the 2025 House of Councillors election.