Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on January 1, 2026, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) holds at least 57 seats in Taiwan's Legislative Yuan, constituting a majority. The official seat count will be determined based on the Legislative Yuan's records as of that date. If the DPP holds fewer than 57 seats, the market will resolve to "No", unless less than 113 seats are occupied and the DPP holds 50% of occupied seats plus one seat, which would be a majority in practice.

(It's not totally clear how such a circumstance could come about, but it's Taiwan so 😬)

Background

As of January 2024, the DPP held 51 seats in the 113-seat Legislative Yuan, while the Kuomintang (KMT) held 52 seats, and the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) held 8 seats. (taipeitimes.com) This distribution resulted in no party having an absolute majority. In June 2025, recall votes targeting 24 KMT lawmakers were scheduled, potentially affecting the balance of power in the legislature. (reuters.com)

Considerations

The outcome of the July 2025 recall votes could significantly impact the DPP's ability to achieve a functional majority by January 1, 2026. If a substantial number of KMT legislators are recalled and the DPP wins subsequent by-elections, it could alter the current seat distribution. However, the success of these recalls and by-elections is uncertain and subject to voter turnout and political dynamics.