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MANIFOLD
Will a human preserved through cryonics be successfully brought back to life by end of 2100?
83
Ṁ1.3kṀ6.2k
2101
49%
chance

The restored subject must have previously been declared legally dead. For a positive resolution, the restored subject must be awake, be able to communicate, and live for at least one month. They also must have been declared dead for at least one month. The resolution criteria of this market will not be dependent on whether the restored subject retains their personal identity/memories.

Update: 2023-02-13: A digital mind upload is not sufficient to merit a positive resolution.

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Where the reversibility ladder stands, for a 2100 deadline. Organ: a rat kidney vitrified, held up to 100 days, rewarmed with iron-oxide nanoparticles in a magnetic field and transplanted with full function (Han et al., Nature Communications 2023); nothing larger, and no brain of any species, has been reversibly vitrified. Whole body: hours of deep hypothermia, not storage, and in dogs rather than people (Leaf and Darwin's bloodless perfusion at a few degrees above zero with resuscitation and no measurable deficit, Cryovita/Alcor, 1980s). Repair of people preserved under 1990s to 2020s protocols: no demonstrated method in any tissue. Seventy-four years is long enough for several rungs, but the rungs so far have come decades apart (dog hypothermia in the 1980s, the rat kidney in 2023), and this market also needs the subject to have been legally dead for a month and to live for a month after. For scale on how slowly whole-animal results move, going from a drug working in mice to a lifespan answer in dogs is taking the field about 20 years (ITP rapamycin 2009, dog readouts 2029 to 2031); registry of those trials (mine): https://w0lph.github.io/k9/trials/

Must not this be a subset (upload doesn't count) of the "restored" be version of this question and thus lower probability?

May be. If it happens, it would be great.

What do you think on the below question?

"Update: 2023-02-13: A digital mind upload is not sufficient to merit a positive resolution."
Huge update. I'm selling my yes shares because this is assuming a lot more about future society, etc, and I'm not sure about it.

>2:1 odds that there's some fundamental issue that makes this way harder than people expect seems like a good deal to me

@Adam The question doesn't specify how long someone has to have been cryonically preserved. Being cryopreserved with 2070s technology (or the latest technology before cryopreserved people aren't legally considered dead, if that's sooner) and revived with 2090s technology seems quite plausible.

@dph121 it's an interesting question what technology might exist, it might not even be cryogenic, but legally dead heart stopped etc for a month and brought back, wonder what's possible