When will the hostilities in Gaza end?
➕
Plus
138
Ṁ40k
2025
1.2%
Nov 2024 or earlier
3%
Dec 2024 or earlier
4%
Jan 2025 or earlier
6%
Feb 2025 or earlier
20%
Mar 2025 or earlier
28%
April 2025 or earlier
40%
May 2025 or earlier
50%
June 2025 or earlier
55%
July 2025 or earlier
60%
August 2025 or earlier
63%
September 2025 or earlier
67%
October 2025 or earlier

The market will be resolved when one of the following conditions is fulfilled:

  1. Israel announces the conclusion of the military operation in Gaza.

  2. A long-term ceasefire is established between Israel and Hamas or other Gazan authorities.

  3. Hostilities end in some other way.

As soon as one of these criteria is fulfilled and at least a few days pass without the renewal of the fighting, I'll resolve all the answers that are still open to YES.

Until that happens, I'll be resolving each answer to NO as soon as the period that it refers to ends. If a ceasefire is established at the end of the month, I'll delay the resolution a bit to see whether it stays in effect.

I will not bet on this market.

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“Hostilities” is a very funny way of saying ethnic cleansing and genocide…

@mqudsi If Israel were to stop ethnic cleansing/genocide but keep up hostilities then the market would not resolve

bought Ṁ10 April 2025 or earlier YES

Now that the leader of Hamas is dead, there's nothing stopping Bibi from agreeing to a ceasefire and getting the hostages back.

well there's one pretty important thing: they just killed the guy who was negotiating the ceasefire

No offense to hamas, but I'm pretty sure they won't be dictating terms any time soon.

They killed the leader of the political wing, who had limited real power. Sinwar has all the real control over Hamas in the ways that matter.

I've also added a couple of options for later dates.

@OlegEterevsky
How about "later than July 1, 2025"?

@ohadcohen It's equivalent to NO for "June 2025 or earlier"

@OlegEterevsky
Right, I'm new here, Thanks

@ohadcohen No worries. In this market you can vote for each option independently.

bought Ṁ50 Jul 2024 or earlier YES

“Jul 2024 or earlier” means it must end by July 1st or July 31st?

@nsokolsky In July or earlier, so before August 1st.

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