The market will resolve positively as soon as one of the following conditions is fulfilled:

1. A ceasefire is established and holds for 90 days.

2. Israel announces the conclusion of the military operation and doesn’t renew the offensive within the next 90 days.

3. Hamas ceases to exist and is not replaced within the next 90 days by a similar organization that would continue active resistance in Gaza.

4. The state of Israel ceases to exist.

In all cases the target date is the start of the respective period, but the resolution date (except in option 4) is 90 days later.

I do not bet on my own questions.