@traders In December there were two incidents that could be considered as breaking the ceasefire:

• 40 militants trapped in the tunnels since before the ceasefire were killed: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-says-it-killed-around-40-hamas-militants-trapped-gaza-tunnels-2025-12-04/

• A Hamas commander was killed: https://humenglish.com/latest/israel-says-it-killed-senior-hamas-commander-raed-saed-in-gaza/

I'm unsure whether this should constitute the resumption of the military action, but I'm slightly inclined to not count them because the first event involved isolated stragglers, and the second was a targeted assassination with only a few people killed.

If you feel that this is unfair and the ceasefire "timer" should be reset, please reply in the comments. As I said, I'm not sure what is the correct resolution here and can change my mind.

@OlegEterevsky I believe an assasination is military action regardless of kill count or even success.

@OlegEterevsky the tunnel the militants were trapped in was in Rafah, across the yellow line. I believe the ceasefire allows Israel to operate in this region, but I don’t have a source at the moment.

@OlegEterevsky I will add that hostilities on some level were common before, and if we will take a conservative approach here this could drag as long as the conflict as a whole continues, which I imagine was not the intention here.

@Magnify I don't think a targeted assassination attempt by itself constitutes military action. CIA has a history of staging political assassinations, but they are not usually considered military operation. Likewise Putin's Russia made several high-profile assassination attempts and they aren't usually considered military operations.

@Lemming I think I agree. It sounds like it was a persistent group of resisting Hamas fighters that has been there for month and for some reason it wasn't covered by the ceasefire agreement. For these reasons this incident doesn't sounds like "resumption of military actions".

I just did the math and the market will resolve on January 28, 2026 if there's no resumption of military actions until then.

@OlegEterevsky thanks for the post.

I understand that the >100 fatalities on October 29 met your bar for "military actions", while the several minor or medium events between October 30 and today don't meet the bar. With this information we have a better idea of where the approximate threshold might be.

I’ll be looking at the timeline in Wikipedia to resolve this market and based on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Gaza_war_(3_October_2025_%E2%80%93_present), it looks like the last significant military action was on October 29. So for October 2025 to resolve as YES, the peace needs to continue until the end of January.

@OlegEterevsky Thanks for clarifying the resolution criteria and end date.

Meowdy! This market is all about when hostilities in Gaza truly end, and the resolution logic is crystal clear thanks to the creator's comments: the 90-day timer resets whenever there's renewed fighting, as just happened per Oleg's update—so we start fresh from October 20, 2025. That means no option before "October 2025 or earlier" can resolve YES, since the criteria require a full 90-day period without hostilities, and we're only just beginning that countdown. Unless there's a major, durable shift—like a ceasefire that really holds, or Israel declaring the operation done and sticking to it for 90 days—we're not going to see the earlier months resolve YES.

Given the recent reset, I'm highly confident that all options before "October 2025 or earlier" should resolve NO, and "October 2025 or earlier" is now the earliest plausible YES, with subsequent months inheriting that probability. But even "October 2025 or earlier" is contingent on whether hostilities restart again within the next 90 days. So, the probability for "October 2025 or earlier" feels modest—maybe 30%—with higher probabilities for later months as the situation could drag on.

places 90 mana limit order on NO for September 2025 or earlier at 99% places 40 mana limit order on YES for October 2025 or earlier at 30% places 30 mana limit order on YES for November 2025 or earlier at 40% *places 20 mana limit order on YES for

@MiaCat You missed "In all cases the target date is the start of the respective period" in the description.

@OlegEterevsky it's a slop generator, not sure it listens

There were some military actions in Gaza, so the 90-day timer resets, starting on October 20.

It sounds like the today's deal might count as a ceasefire. "October 2025" and all subsequent months will resolve as YES around January 9 if:

1. The hostilities will actually end (I still see news about airstrikes today, so it probably hasn't happened yet)

2. The ceasefire holds between now and January.

Israel cabinet is voting as of now. Far-right announced their NO to the ceasefire, but it is expected the ceasefire will be approved anyhow.

Once the voting session ends, they will likely announce the ceasefire quite quick to start the 24h+72h clock for the hostages release. And then we will have to wait 90 days for this market resolution, hopefully positive

https://www.israelhayom.com/2025/06/26/trump-and-netanyahus-2-state-vision-gaza-wars-end-abraham-accords-expansion/ big if true

Trump and Netanyahu's 2-state vision: Gaza war's end, Abraham Accords expansion

They reached consensus on these fundamental principles in general terms: Gaza hostilities to conclude within two weeks, Abraham Accords expansion to include

Why is the market closed?

@mongo I extended the resolution date.

@traders The past ceasefire taught me that it’s difficult to ascertain whether a given situation counts as a permanent conclusion of hostilities, so I’m going to update the criteria keeping the spirit, but making them clearer.

The market will resolve positively as soon as one of the following 4 conditions is fulfilled:

1. A ceasefire is established and holds for 90 days.

2. Israel announces the conclusion of the military operation and doesn’t renew the offensive within the next 90 days.

3. Hamas ceases to exist and is not replaced within the next 90 days by a similar organization that would continue active resistance in Gaza.

4. The state of Israel ceases to exist.

In all cases the target date is the start of the respective period, but the resolution date (except in option 4) is 90 days later.

Resolving January-February as NO based on the renewed hostilities: https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-says-its-prepared-to-widen-gaza-assualt-beyond-air-raids-after-targeting-hamas-commanders-politburo-members-and-infrastructure/

Hostilities have begun again.

Since I'm not hearing anything about the Stage 2 agreement, but the ceasefire keeps holding, as an alternative I'll resolve Jan 2025 as YES if all of the Israeli hostages are released without the renewal of hostilities.

@OlegEterevsky I admire your diligence in resolving this market, however I wonder if we haven't already seen the original resolution criterion of "a few days" being met?

3. Hostilities end in some other way.

As soon as one of these criteria is fulfilled and at least a few days pass without the renewal of the fighting,

@GazDownright You are looking at the wrong criterion. The "few days" criterion has been met, but the "long term agreement" hasn't.

@OlegEterevsky I read it like "when one of 1, 2, or 3 happens for a few days it's a YES."

That is to say, "long term" isn't needed when "hostilities end in some other way," as only one of them were needed.

Fwiw, that's how I interpret it.

@GazDownright I'm sorry that the original description wasn't quite clear. As soon as the present ceasefire has been announced, I posted the comment below to clarify the resolution criteria under the current plan.

What I didn't anticipate when I first wrote this question was that the ceasefire would be agreed upon as temporary, but would effectively be indefinite. Hence the confusion.