Will the Whales Vs Minnows market resolve before May 2023
58
80
1.1K
resolved Apr 30
Resolved
YES

/IsaacKing/will-the-whales-win-this-market

If the above market has resolved before 1 May 2023 UTC this resolves YES, otherwise NO. An N/A resolution still counts as resolution.

Apr 16, 3:16pm: Will the Whales Vs Minnows market close before May 2023 → Will the Whales Vs Minnows market resolve before May 2023

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predicted YES

can resolve

boughtṀ250YES

😭

bought Ṁ250 of YES

@Mira I calculated with exponential distribution and 256x10m mean

bought Ṁ50 of YES

It seems like there're wildly different intuitions on how long it will take the committee to resolve...

predicted YES

@Imuli you ruined the fun(

bought Ṁ0 of NO

@Mira do you want to take a 1%-1May loan from me to fill my limit orders?

bought Ṁ30 of NO

@Catnee You're ruthless, Catnee. This one's low probability, but not yet "free money". Anything below 10% was greed on my part.

bought Ṁ0 of YES

@Mira fair enough, how about 12-15% orders?

bought Ṁ1,000 of NO

@Catnee I took some of it, but that's enough for now.

I know you are thinking "the council will resolve as soon as it closes, and the block has a higher chance of being mined than this", but the council can't resolve until it closes even with trustworthy badge, and it's Saturday so maybe admins aren't working and online to see, and maybe it gets mined at an inopportune time, and maybe the council hasn't decided yet(though this one is less likely).

But even with all that, I won't put too much in.

Is "resolve" here different from close? If the market closes April 29th but it takes until May 2nd for The Council™ to be sure they know the count of bots and alts well enough to make a final decision and pay out everyone, how does this market resolve?

predicted YES

@Shelvacu Did you mean to write this message on the main Whales Vs. Minnow Market and not the side ones?

@JohnAdams No, posted it on the right markets, duplicated because the different market creators might have meant different things.

predicted YES

@Shelvacu Oh okay. My mistake.

@Shelvacu resolved means resolved and payed out. If it gets re-resolved later the initial resolution date still counts.

predicted NO

Why are people so confident it will close soon? I thought Isaac was going to drag it out a really long time until he wins.

predicted YES

@AlexRockwell Read the discussion in Discord for the latest

bought Ṁ25 of NO

@JimHays As far as I can tell the current discussion on Discord amounts to, lots of people think it should enter random close mode yesterday, the 20th, or the 24th, but Isaac explicitly disavowed that in the market comments here.

@Imuli Isaac responded to a comment saying it was decided (it has not been decided). But it seems that it will be one of those.

Been decided now, closes in a week.

Might want to update the title to match description (“close” vs “resolve”). Technically it already closed at least once, but didn’t resolve.

predicted YES

@JimHays It did? When?

bought Ṁ200 of YES

@IsaacKing I had thought it closed earlier today, but if you don’t think so I’d be surprised if I am right

predicted YES

@IsaacKing Hmmm… I’m still seeing that it closed at 8pm EST on April 15th.

bought Ṁ200 of YES
predicted YES

@JimHays Oh, so it did. I tried to edit it earlier today while I was at work to make sure it didn't close, but I guess that edit didn't go through.