Will the tariffs be successful in bringing back manufacturing to the US ? (2025)
Will the tariffs be successful in bringing back manufacturing to the US ? (2025)
4
225Ṁ122Dec 31
2.8 %
expected1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
26%
Below - 2%
24%
- 2% to 0%
13%
0% to 3%
8%
3% to 6%
8%
6% to 9%
8%
9% to 12%
6%
12% to 15%
6%
Above 15%
Will the tariffs be successful in bringing back manufacturing to the US ?
Market resolves to the total change in manufacturing output GDP (durable goods manufacturing) in 2025 as measured by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (here's the 2024 report)
in 2023 the this would have resolved to 9.1%
in 2024 this would have resolved to 4.2%
Upper ranges are exclusive (for example the 0% to 3% range stops at 2.99999%)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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