Will the tariffs be successful in bringing back manufacturing to the US ? (2025)
11
225Ṁ975
Dec 31
1.5 %
expected
19%
Below - 2%
26%
- 2% to 0%
31%
0% to 3%
10%
3% to 6%
8%
6% to 9%
3%
9% to 12%
2%
12% to 15%
0.9%
Above 15%

Will the tariffs be successful in bringing back manufacturing to the US ?
Market resolves to the total change in manufacturing output GDP (durable goods manufacturing) in 2025 as measured by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (here's the 2024 report)

in 2023 the this would have resolved to 9.1%

in 2024 this would have resolved to 4.2%

Upper ranges are exclusive (for example the 0% to 3% range stops at 2.99999%)

  • Update 2025-10-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has corrected the 2024 example figure from 4.2% to 1.2% when looking at the Bureau of Economic Analysis report.

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could you point out where in the report you got your 4.2% figure for 2024?

huh, actually, I have no idea.

looking at it again it seem it should have been 0.5%


@Odoacre the description of the market says "durable goods manufacturing" which actually corresponds to line 8 and not line 7. Could you confirm the table number, line number, and column header that you will use to resolve this market?

@Cactus yes you're right, updated

I don't want to specify the line + header as it may change in the next report, but I think the intent is pretty clear?

@Odoacre I think the intent is still extremely unclear. For example why did you use the "real gross output" table in your comment, when there is another table (table 12, page 19) by industry for real gross GDP? why are we using real figures when the description does not specify inflation adjustments? I have no idea how these decisions were made or where your initial numbers were gathered.

For the difference between output and gdp, from gpt5:

"Gross Output (GO) measures the total sales or receipts of all businesses throughout production stages. It includes all intermediate goods and services produced in the economy, not just final output. In other words, GO tracks the value of production at every stage of the supply chain. Because it double counts inputs, it’s typically much larger than GDP.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the value of final goods and services produced within a country in a given period. Intermediate goods are excluded to avoid double counting."

@Cactus alright. I will spend some time in this this afternoon

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