Will Germany take on new debt in any way, shape, or form in order to create the 2025 budget?
Will Germany take on new debt in any way, shape, or form in order to create the 2025 budget?
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160Ṁ400resolved Apr 2
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YES1D
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1M
ALL
The question will resolve yes if any form of debt (whether it‘s a Sondervermögen, Notlage, or anything else) is taken on in order to put up a national budget for 2025.
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The debt brake is enshrined in Articles 109 and 115 of the German Basic Law. It provides for a structural and a cyclical component. The structural component limits the Federal Government's ability to incur new debt to 0.35% of nominal gross domestic product per year.
I assume you talk about debt above what the debt brake (Schuldenbremse) allows? Otherwise it is a certain YES.
As a followup: The output gap calculation method (EU-CAM, Potenzialschätzung) could be adapted to allow for a lot more debt while adhering to the debt brake. How would that resolve?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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