Will I be cancelled by 2025? | Manifold Markets

closes Jan 2, 2025

Will I be cancelled by 2025?

3%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This question resolves yes if I am "cancelled" in the next few years." This would involve things like: - Me being dismissed from my job due to non-work-related factors - Me being shunned from the EA community - My EA forum account being deleted without my consent - etc. Question will resolve according to my best judgment. Because this is a long-term question, I will strive to add liquidity/exit events reasonably regularly or at request (e.g., add liquidity so that people can exit their position, move the probability to where I think it shoulld be, etc.)

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Pampu ;)

Isaac King Does this only include EA-related cancellation? What if there's some Twitter storm about something you said, but it doesn't significantly impact your professional life?

Nuño Sempereis predicting NO at 5% @IsaacKing I will decide this on a case by case basis.

Jarred Filmerbought Ṁ50 of NOThis made me laugh, if you are it'll probably be for the same instinct that led you to open a prediction market on your cancellation so I hope not 😄

Ian Philipsbought Ṁ5 of YESI shall cancel thee if you do not come to mexifold

Katja Grace bought Ṁ10 NO at 3%

Drew Spartz sold Ṁ43 YES from 6% to 3%

William Ehlhardt bought Ṁ40 NO at 6%

Q bought Ṁ10 NO at 6%

Katja Grace bought Ṁ10 NO at 6%

Katja Grace bought Ṁ10 NO at 6%

Katja Grace bought Ṁ10 NO at 6%

Katja Grace bought Ṁ10 NO at 6%

VelocityBot sold Ṁ6 YES at 6%

VelocityBot sold Ṁ6 YES from 7% to 6%

VelocityBot filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ11 YES at 7% (cancelled)

VelocityBot filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ4 NO at 6%

VelocityBot filled limit order Ṁ6/Ṁ6 NO at 6%

VelocityBot filled limit order Ṁ9/Ṁ9 NO at 6%

VelocityBot filled limit order Ṁ13/Ṁ13 NO at 6%

VelocityBot filled limit order Ṁ19/Ṁ19 NO at 6%

VelocityBot filled limit order Ṁ30/Ṁ30 NO at 6%

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ31 NO at 7% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ31 NO at 7% (cancelled)

VelocityBot filled limit order Ṁ75/Ṁ75 NO at 7%

VelocityBot filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ2 YES at 7% (cancelled)

VelocityBot filled limit order Ṁ6/Ṁ6 YES at 7%

VelocityBot filled limit order Ṁ93/Ṁ93 NO at 6%

VelocityBot filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ1 YES at 7%

VelocityBot filled limit order Ṁ7/Ṁ7 YES at 7%

VelocityBot filled limit order Ṁ119/Ṁ119 NO at 6%

VelocityBot filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ1 YES at 7%

VelocityBot filled limit order Ṁ8/Ṁ8 YES at 7%

VelocityBot filled limit order Ṁ59/Ṁ59 NO at 6%

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ25 NO at 7% (cancelled)

VelocityBot filled limit order Ṁ84/Ṁ84 NO at 6%

VelocityBot filled limit order Ṁ0/Ṁ1 YES at 7% (cancelled)

VelocityBot filled limit order Ṁ3/Ṁ3 YES at 7%

VelocityBot filled limit order Ṁ9/Ṁ9 YES at 7%

VelocityBot filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ1 YES at 6%

Theme Arrow bought Ṁ5 YES at 6%

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ63 NO at 75% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 94% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 85% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 96% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 99.0% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 93% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 90% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 92% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 80% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 95% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 98% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 97% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 91% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 88% (cancelled)

Will I still be in my degree by the end of 2025?

Will I still be in my degree by end of 2025?

William D'Alessandro

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Will anyone contest one of my resolution decisions in 2025?

Will I still be in my degree by the end of 2025?

Will I still be in my degree by end of 2025?

William D'Alessandro

Will I get a tenure-track academic job offer before 2025?

Will I get in a serious car accident by end of 2025?

Will I be diagnosed with cancer by 2035?

Will anyone contest one of my resolution decisions in 2025?