🏅 Top traders

arguably the market should resolve - palestinian authorities are claiming 500+ already, @Nostradamnedus could you let us know what sources you're waiting on

It's basically guaranteed at this point, this was the biggest attack on Israel in over a decade, and the government is the most right wing Israeli government in history

@colorednoise The IDF is very good at minimizing Palestinian casualties. In the last Israel-Hamas war, Israeli air strikes killed 0.25 Palestinians on average. Nevertheless this market is underpriced rn.

Jordan News (citing a UN report) states that 112 were killed between January 1 and May 29, far below this market's threshold of 500.

So, the historical average according to some older sources is a bit over 500 a year. But that varies a lot, apparently? Al-jazeera says 170 were slain last year by israeli forces, and I figure they'd be likely to overestimate if anything. The UN count (as per https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties

United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs - occupied Palestinian territory | Data on casualties

function checkmobile(){ let check = false; (function(a){if(/(android|bb\d+|meego).+mobile|avantgo|bada\/|blackberry|blazer|compal|elaine|fennec|hiptop|iemobile|ip(hone|od)|iris|kindle|lge |maemo|midp|mmp|mobile.+firefox|netfront|opera m(ob|in)i|palm( os)?|phone|p(ixi|re)\/|plucker|pocket|psp|s…

is about 134 this year by israeli forces. So . . . assuming that's the resolution source, the "normal" amount of friction isn't enough to get you there with any likelihood. This question should thus presumably track pretty closely with any market on a major israeli/palestinian conflict this year.

@AndrewHartman Most of that 500/year is three specific operations in 2008, 2012 and 2014. Unless there's a new one of those (which base rates would give around 10% chance of happening given the year is half over already) going over 500 in 2023 is unlikely.

@ShakedKoplewitz Yeah, this is more or less my conclusion as well.

It feels like there should be a market for ratio of rockets fired at Israel to Palestinians killed

What resolution source are you planning to use?

@RobertCousineau Independent estimates.

@Nostradamnedus from whom?

@RobertCousineau UN and human rights organisations.

@Nostradamnedus I asl because I was having trouble finding historical numbers - can you post a link to an equivalent report from a prior your?

@RobertCousineau *ask

*year