Will Harry and Meghan divorce by 2030?
32
closes 2029
54%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Amount
Ṁ0
Ṁ50
Ṁ100
Payout if YES
Ṁ18 +84%
New probability
55% +0.8%
Get Ṁ500 play money
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@footgun So you're giving a 23% chance that they will be divorced by 2030? As a base rate
@footgun What about celebrity marriages, where the family's against it? Those seem to both be heavy pressure against.

According to https://marriagefoundation.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/pdf-03.pdf, celebrity divorce rate in first 14 year of marriage is 50%.
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