Will Harry and Meghan divorce by 2030? | Manifold

Will Harry and Meghan divorce by 2030?

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footgunpredicts NO

2 replies

@footgun So you're giving a 23% chance that they will be divorced by 2030? As a base rate

@footgun What about celebrity marriages, where the family's against it? Those seem to both be heavy pressure against.

According to https://marriagefoundation.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/pdf-03.pdf, celebrity divorce rate in first 14 year of marriage is 50%.

1 reply

footgunbought Ṁ35 of NO

I built a model using the annual rate in the report. Should be around 25%?

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