Who will be the next world leader to die violently while in office?
Who will be the next world leader to die violently while in office?
15
430Ṁ3352030
6%
Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin
8%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
3%
Mahmoud Abbas
1.2%
Lula
8%
Min Aung Hlaing
3%
Nayib Bukele
12%
Donald Trump
60%
Heads of state and government included.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Who will be the next World Leader to Leave?
Who will be the next US President to die?
Will the next president die while in office?
18% chance
Will the next President of the United States die in office?
19% chance
Who will be the next (current or former) US president to die, aside from Carter?
From what continent will the next assassinated head of state and/or government come from?
Will the next President of the USA (elected in 2024) die before the end of their term in office.
20% chance
Which of the following top-20-GDP countries will be next to have an acting head of state assassinated?
Who will be the next U.S. president born after the beginning of WW2 to die?
Which President will pass away before 2030