Resolves YES if Suella Braverman ceases to hold the title of Home Secretary, as listed on His Majesty's Government: The Cabinet - MPs and Lords - UK Parliament, before the end of 2023.
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She’s gone! https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/1723982917016191287
Waiting for the cabinet list to update so I can resolve
@Noit Bit Now Schapps is defending her I’m dialling back a bit, I still don’t understand how she’s going to stay in post but maybe she is? https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/nov/12/far-right-clashes-london-pro-palestine-march-grant-shapps-suella-braverman
I wonder if today's events make it more or less likely that she'll lose her job?
She spent the whole week claiming that pro-Palastine protesters would get violent and disruptive around the Cenotaph. Instead, she seems to have inspired the far-right to get violent and disruptive around the Cenotaph in the name of "protecting" it from some imaginary threat.
You'd think that would mean that her job is untenable, but it's difficult to tell with this government!
Politico Playbook suggests that decision could be pushed back as far as Wednesday, when there’s a ruling in the Rwanda policy which will impact choice of a new home sec. Or it could be today! https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/a-six-day-suella-spectacle/
Some people are talking about it like a done deal so I thought I might come here and snap up some NO shares at 90%… Instead it was trading in the 40s so I’ve got some YES!
I think Sunak’s probably too much of a coward to sack her, so I’m not going to build up a massive position, but 50% still seems like good value!
@Noit very much gut feels and not actual information, but my impression is that she's important to him with a decent subset of the party. I think that while Sunak can't be happy, what she said is pretty much exactly the sort of thing that appeals to the subset that she brings to the table. Kicking her out for doing the things that those people like her for loses him support that he needs, both in terms of MPs and membership.
As you can see from my 18 mana position, I'm super confident in this logic.
@Noit there was a columnist in the telegraph with the opinion that if Suella is fired, it will split the party into two
Suella (like Kemi) captures the Tory electorate that supported Liz Truss. And Rishi def needs that one if he wants to put a campaign next year.
@palcu Yeah, I can believe that. But if he doesn’t fire her, then his authority is totally spent. I think it’s more likely than not that she gets fired, but I definitely see an alternate path to YES which is the collapse of the cabinet and another leadership election, though time for that to happen before new year is getting tight.
@palcu I’m all in on this, you can start betting up markets on earlier general elections and further resignations!
More interesting format for this and related markets. https://manifold.markets/Noit/who-will-leave-the-ukgov-cabinet-ne?r=Tm9pdA
This is quite high given that Braverman is undeniably popular with the right wing of the party and the anti-immigrant electoral cohort which Sunak needs to turn out for him at the election.
Matt Withers writes in the New European on 21/8.
with a reshuffle on the horizon and Sunak looking to get his final team in place ahead of the election, no-one realistically expects her to be moved.
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/are-suella-bravermans-days-as-home-secretary-numbered/
I feel like we’ve been here before, but…