Cabinet members as per https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers
On the day any member of cabinet resigns, is fired, dies, or otherwise ceases to hold a position in cabinet, the close date will update to midnight of that day. After close, this market will resolve equally YES to all cabinet members who have left on that day.
This design is to prevent a Johnson Cascade from causing a market mis-resolution where multiple cabinet members resign in rapid succession and identifying who went first becomes difficult.
Being promoted to another cabinet position does not count as leaving.
If all cabinet members are replaced simultaneously e.g. at a general election then it will resolve equally YES between all cabinet members.
If this market reaches the original close date with nobody leaving cabinet then it will be extended by a year.
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ478 | |
| 2 | Ṁ295 | |
| 3 | Ṁ209 | |
| 4 | Ṁ130 | |
| 5 | Ṁ51 |
New market is up! Hopefully closure won’t be triggered within the next 24 hours. Uses the new “many answers” format so there should be much less mucking about with answer shares.
https://manifold.markets/Noit/who-will-leave-the-ukgov-cabinet-ne-0230dabd3759?r=Tm9pdA
Glen gets Quin's old job (source: BBC)
@JoshuaWilkes I think so? But buying NO is equal to buying YES in every other person in the market and so you might be better off targeting YES than NO.
Just for my own notes later: Nick Gibb, Neil O’Brien, and Will Quince aren’t cabinet ministers and don’t count towards the totals. As of this moment we’d be resolving 100% Braverman, although I’m expecting Coffey to go which would result in a 50% / 50% split assuming nothing further.
@LasseRasinen He’s on the cabinet list, he counts and I’ve separated him out. So now we’re at 33% for each of Braverman, Coffey and Quin
Teased reshufffle does not seem immediately forthcoming, so I have created a market to try and identify when it will happen. https://manifold.markets/Noit/when-will-the-next-ukgov-cabinet-re?r=Tm9pdA
Andrew Lansley has suggested Rishi Sunak should sack Jeremy Hunt in the next reshuffle in an interview with Sky’s Sophy Ridge.
I cannot fathom the idea of sacking your chancellor days before or after publishing your budget, but what do I know?
Politico Playbook is teasing a reshuffle before the budget (7th November), if true this market will definitely close in the next couple of weeks! https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/cabinet-and-commons-talk-middle-east/
