Will Avital Balwit be employed in 2030, after writing about her last 5 years of work?
21
3.6k
2030
80%
chance

She wrote this article: https://www.palladiummag.com/2024/05/17/my-last-five-years-of-work/. She actually speculates she might only work for 3 more years.

Resolves to YES if Avital Balwit has gainful or plausibly impactful employment, including self-employment but excluding household work and raising children, during the year 2030, constituting an average of at least 20 hours/week of work over some 6 month period.

Domestic work such as child care does not count towards this.

Resolves to NO if Avital Balwit does not have such gainful or plausibly impactful employment to this extent, for any reason.

Resolves to 50% if we have no idea what she is up to.

If there is a dispute over whether what she is doing counts and it seems non-obvious I will feed this wording into the best AI model at the time and see what it says.

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bought Ṁ500 YES

Avital is far, far too competent a person to be automated away at the same time as the rest of us. Vote of confidence in her, and away from her humility.

bought Ṁ1,000 YES

@ZviMowshowitz just to confirm, it does not matter what she’s paid / what she earns?

@MattCWilson Gainful under the standard meaning of the word. So yeah, if she's doing something productive pay doesn't matter.