This refers to the next general election to take place electing representatives to the UK parliament following December 2019.
Market resolves 100% to the party with the winning candidate.
Please submit answers in the form of a political party, not an individual. If you wish to submit an individual who will run as an independent, please submit your answer in the form: 'Independent: [person's name]'. If anybody submits 'Independent' as an answer, it will not resolve YES, even if an independent wins.
'Labour' and 'Labour and Co-operative' will be treated interchangeably.
I may bet in this market.
Clarification: if Jeremy Corbyn stands for election under the banner of a registered political party, the Independent: Jeremy Corbyn option will resolve NO even if he wins.
If he runs as an independent but styling himself as a party on the ballot sheet (i.e. no registered party) and wins then that option resolves YES.
Related questions
Just a clarification based on this morning’s news: if Jeremy Corbyn stands for election under the banner of a registered political party, the Independent: Jeremy Corbyn option will resolve NO even if he wins.
If he runs as an independent but styling himself as a party on the ballot sheet (i.e. no registered party) and wins then that option resolves YES.
So it might be possible that we need multiple Jeremy Corbyn options on this market depending on how efficiently he registers any new party as per https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/jeremy-corbyn-new-politicanl-party-general-election-366430/
Just a clarification based on this morning’s news: if Jeremy Corbyn stands for election under the banner of a registered political party, the Independent: Jeremy Corbyn option will resolve NO even if he wins.
If he runs as an independent but styling himself as a party on the ballot sheet (i.e. no registered party) and wins then that option resolves YES.
So it might be possible that we need multiple Jeremy Corbyn options on this market depending on how efficiently he registers any new party as per https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/jeremy-corbyn-new-politicanl-party-general-election-366430/
I have a few conditional markets related to this constituency:
Will Corbyn be allowed to run as a Labour MP?
If he is not allowed to run for Labour, will he run anyway?
If he does run as an independent candidate, who will win? (Note this is not quite the same as this market because it has the potential to resolve NA. Also, it's the old style of multiple choice. Apologies for that.)
https://manifold.markets/Fion/will-jeremy-corbyn-stand-as-a-labou?r=Rmlvbg
https://manifold.markets/Fion/if-jeremy-corbyn-is-prevented-from?r=Rmlvbg
https://manifold.markets/Fion/if-jeremy-corbyn-stands-as-an-indep?r=Rmlvbg
Also, will the CLP be suspended by the Labour NEC? There was speculation ages ago that the CLP might support Corbyn as their candidate even if the whip is still withdrawn from him. The NEC has the power to suspend CLPs and impose their own candidate, but this could cause a bit of a fuss.
https://manifold.markets/Fion/will-the-islington-north-constituen?r=Rmlvbg
@Edvirtus @pavf this is a linked choice market so I can’t N/A individual answers, but I can confirm that it will definitely not resolve to the “Independent” answer. @pavf maybe your best off buying it to 0 now?
You’ve also taken some risk given that big JC has not officially announced he’ll be standing as an independent yet, but that’s on you.