When will the first asylum seeker be sent from the UK to Rwanda?
28
358
1.2k
May 31
1%
03) May 2024
1%
04) June 2024
7%
05) July 2024
Resolved
NO
01) March 2024
Resolved
NO
02) April 2024

Resolves YES for the first month in which the UK government confirms, or credible news reports are published, that one or more people who were seeking asylum in the United Kingdom have been deported to Rwanda. Market will continue to have monthly options added until either an asylum seeker is sent to Rwanda or there is a general election held which the Conservative Party do not win.

Point of clarification: the government is set to offer asylum seekers whose claims have been rejected a voluntarily trip to Rwanda as an alternative to their home country.

This is a different scheme to the involuntary scheme for those who arrive on small boats.

This market only deals with the latter, involuntary transfers, and not the former, regardless of how the government spins it.

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Point of clarification: the government is set to offer asylum seekers whose claims have been rejected a voluntarily trip to Rwanda as an alternative to their home country.

This is a different scheme to the involuntary scheme for those who arrive on small boats.

This market only deals with the latter, involuntary transfers, and not the former, regardless of how the government spins it.

I can’t see any news stories about any involuntary transfers of people to Rwanda. The BBC is reporting one person has gone under the voluntary scheme which I’ve specifically excluded in the body text and pinned comment as it was not the system under discussion when this question was formulated. So I’ve resolved April NO.

Point of clarification: the government is set to offer asylum seekers whose claims have been rejected a voluntarily trip to Rwanda as an alternative to their home country.

This is a different scheme to the involuntary scheme for those who arrive on small boats.

This market only deals with the latter, involuntary transfers, and not the former, regardless of how the government spins it.

@NoitArchive Is it the involuntary transfer To Rwanda that was blocked in court, or did that apply to both vol and invol?

@GazDownright Involuntary transfer. It’s been legal (and uncontested, afaik) to ask failed asylum seekers to volunteer to go to Rwanda rather than their home country since the Rwanda transfer agreement was signed.

@NoitUK Cheers

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