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MANIFOLD
On what dates will Rachel Reeves still be Chancellor of the Exchequer?
45
Ṁ1.4kṀ25k
Dec 31
1%
2026-12-31 / 31st December 2026
Resolved
YES
2025-03-31 / 31st March 2025
Resolved
YES
2025-06-30 / 30th June 2025
Resolved
YES
2025-09-30 / 30th September 2025
Resolved
YES
2025-12-31 / 31st December 2025
Resolved
YES
2026-06-30 / 30th of June 2026
Resolved
NO
2027-12-31 / 31st December 2027
Resolved
NO
2028-12-31 / 31st December 2028
Resolved
NO
2029-12-31 / 31st December 2029
Resolved
NO
2030-12-31 / 31st December 2030

Each answer resolves YES at 00:01 on the date listed in the answer, if Rachel Reeves is Chancellor AND has been so continuously since her appointment following the 2024 election.

If she loses her job for any reason (including death/firing/resignation/losing an election) then all remaining answers will resolve NO.

Add more dates if you want more granularity.

Market context
UK Politics
UK
Labour Party (UK)
September 2025
Keir Starmer
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@Noit by the wording of the description all the rest can resolve NO

opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 99.0% order

@Noit June can resolve. Thanks. :)

Following today's kerfuffle it's clear that an altercation with Lindsay Hoyle, speaker of the house, is relevant and honestly I'd be a bit surprised if both Reeves and Hoyle remain in place, so I've made a matching market to this one:

She's holding up better than I expected.

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