MANIFOLD
On what dates will Rachel Reeves still be Chancellor of the Exchequer?
39
Ṁ1.4kṀ18k
Dec 31
80%
2026-06-30 / 30th of June 2026
60%
2026-12-31 / 31st December 2026
23%
2027-12-31 / 31st December 2027
11%
2028-12-31 / 31st December 2028
10%
2029-12-31 / 31st December 2029
5%
2030-12-31 / 31st December 2030
Resolved
YES
2025-03-31 / 31st March 2025
Resolved
YES
2025-06-30 / 30th June 2025
Resolved
YES
2025-09-30 / 30th September 2025
Resolved
YES
2025-12-31 / 31st December 2025

Each answer resolves YES at 00:01 on the date listed in the answer, if Rachel Reeves is Chancellor AND has been so continuously since her appointment following the 2024 election.

If she loses her job for any reason (including death/firing/resignation/losing an election) then all remaining answers will resolve NO.

Add more dates if you want more granularity.

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Following today's kerfuffle it's clear that an altercation with Lindsay Hoyle, speaker of the house, is relevant and honestly I'd be a bit surprised if both Reeves and Hoyle remain in place, so I've made a matching market to this one:

She's holding up better than I expected.

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