How many seats will Reform UK win at the next general election?
How many seats will Reform UK win at the next general election?
12
1.1kṀ57862030
153 seats
expected1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
25%
0 - 49
20%
50 - 99
13%
100 - 149
10%
150 - 199
8%
200 - 249
6%
250 - 299
10%
300 - 349
7%
350 - 399
0.8%
400 - 425
0.8%
Above 425
Reform UK won 5 seats in the 2024 general election. How many will they win in the next one?
In the event of party shenanigans (mergers, rebrands etc.) this will resolve to only the number of candidates who are listed as Reform UK on the ballot paper. The exception would be if the whole party clearly undergoes a single unified rebrand in which case it will refer to whatever the subsequent party is named,
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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