When will a Manifold question or comment be posted by someone in space?
15
107
1.5K
2025
4%
In 2024
6%
In 2025 or earlier
7%
In 2026 or earlier
10%
In 2027 or earlier
14%
In 2028 or earlier
17%
In 2029 or earlier
24%
In 2030 or earlier
23%
In 2031 or earlier
26%
In 2032 or earlier
29%
In 2033 or earlier

The market will resolve positively when any Manifold question or comment is posted by a human user who at the time is located in space, i.e. above Karman line, 100 km above the Earth surface. Both orbital and suborbital flights qualify.

The account posting the question or comment has to be tied to a real person of whom it is publicly known that they were in space at the time.

If you are in space right now, please leave a comment under this question, this will simplify the resolution.

If I happen to fly to space while this question is not yet resolved, I will attempt to do it there.

I do not bet on my own questions.

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The question description specifies the commenter has to be human, but the title does not.

@BrunoParga If you could fit all of the conditions in the title, there wouldn't be any need for the description, wouldn't it?

@OlegEterevsky "a human" takes up the same number of characters as "someone".

Since Manifold is pretty pessimistic about comments from space in the next 7 years, I'll add more options.