Elon Musk filed a lawsuit against Open AI for allegedly violating their non-profit mission. What will happen next? Trading will be extended if nothing happens by the resolution date.
If the court rules in favor of Elon Musk on any of the counts, this will resolve to "Elon Musk wins."
If the count rules against Elon Musk on all counts, dismisses the whole lawsuit, or Elon Musk drops the lawsuit, this will resolve to "Open AI wins."
If the case is settled out of court, this will resolve to "Settled out of court."
If something else happens that is not a clear win for either party, this will resolve to "Other."
Appeals will be considered if needed.
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he dropped the suit - resolves Other
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/11/elon-musk-drops-suit-against-openai-and-sam-altman.html
Based on the description, this resolves to Open AI wins:
"If the count rules against Elon Musk on all counts, dismisses the whole lawsuit, or Elon Musk drops the lawsuit, this will resolve to "Open AI wins.""
wow this is a ridiculous resolition. OpenAI doesn't win for him dropping the suit.
my fault for not seeing this in the descriptor I guess but I really don't agree with this definition at all.
What matters is "discovery" not who wins. Revealing to the public or at least privately in court approximately how good Q* is seems to be the goal of the lawsuit. Aka
Wins: OpenAI reveals
A. "Q* isn't really much better than stacking more layers on an LLM
B. "Q*" seems to be able to learn to do almost anything efficiently but it keeps hacking it's way out of containment... (Aka AGI confirmed)
Need a market on if discovery reveals crucial new information, as that's a "win" for Elon.
Judicial outcomes don't matter, worlds richest man doesn't need money and if openAI doesn't have strategic secrets everything they haven't released will be cloned eventually.
Updated resolution criteria for better clarity, please ask if you have any clarification questions.
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What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?