Resolution criteria

(AI-generated, might be adjusted)

• Resolves YES if, by market close, OpenAI (or a subsidiary) is obligated via final judgment or signed settlement in Sora‑related lawsuits to pay an aggregate amount strictly greater than $1,000,000,000 USD. “Sora‑related” means the complaint names Sora or alleges harms from Sora’s training, outputs, or features (e.g., copyrighted characters, likeness, or video generation). Payments include damages, statutory penalties, court‑awarded attorneys’ fees and costs, and cash components of settlements; exclude OpenAI’s internal legal expenses. If obligations are denominated in other currencies, convert to USD at the FX rate on the judgment/settlement date. Obligations paid by insurers/indemnitors on OpenAI’s behalf still count.

• Resolves NO if the above threshold is not met by market close.

• Appeals: amounts from judgments only count once final (no stay pending appeal) or once paid. Confidential settlements only count if the amount is disclosed in court filings or in public statements/financial filings by either party or their owners.

• Verification sources may include court dockets and orders (e.g., CourtListener/RECAP or Justia), company or plaintiff press releases, or coverage by major outlets referencing filings (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg). Examples: CourtListener docket index; Justia MDL docket; Reuters coverage of Sora/IP policy shifts. (reuters.com)

Background

• Sora is OpenAI’s text‑to‑video system; in late Sep–Oct 2025 OpenAI launched a standalone Sora app that quickly went viral. (reuters.com)

• Rights‑holder concerns focus on copyrighted characters and likenesses. Recent reporting indicates Sora 2 uses an opt‑out approach for copyrighted characters and is adding controls and potential rev‑share for rights holders; at least one major studio (Disney) has opted out. (eweek.com)

Considerations

• Damages could come from one blockbuster case or several smaller cases that cumulatively exceed $1B; global settlements spanning multiple OpenAI products count if Sora is among the accused tools (unless the agreement expressly excludes Sora).

• Non‑monetary relief (injunctions, product changes) doesn’t count unless paired with disclosed monetary payments.

• Government civil actions resolved by consent decrees are included if they arise from lawsuits (not purely regulatory inquiries) and are Sora‑related. (reuters.com)