Close date may be extended as long as the outcome is unclear.
Resolution Details
Dropped by Elon Musk: Any time before a verdict has been rendered, Elon Musk withdraws the lawsuit without a settlement.
Settled in favor of Elon Musk: For any amount, damages, or even an admission of wrongdoing.
Settled in favor of OpenAI: A settlement that gives damages or other value to OpenAI. Not just dropping charges.
If the settlement involves an exchange on both sides, I will defer to the side which got more monetary value. If there is a hidden settlement, I'll wait a minimum of 6 months for details to emerge, then resolve 50% to each settlement option.
Verdict in favor of Elon Musk: Resolves YES if a court rules in favor for ANY claim or count in the lawsuit, except if OpenAI wins a counterclaim for a higher monetary value than all the verdicts in favor of Elon Musk.
Verdict in favor of OpenAI: Resolves YES if a court rules against Elon Musk for ALL claims in the lawsuit, or in favor of a counterclaim for higher monetary value than any verdicts that resolve against OpenAI.
Case dismissed by court: Due to lack of standing, jurisdiction, or merit
If there is an outcome that is not enumerated here, I reserve the right to split resolution or resolve N/A, but I will try my best not to. I will not bet. This market is about the initial lawsuit, not any appeals.
Related questions
OpenAI made a statement: "We intend to move to dismiss all of Elon's claims".
https://openai.com/blog/openai-elon-musk
If the settlement involves an exchange on both sides, I will defer to the side which got more monetary value. If there is a hidden settlement, I'll wait a minimum of 6 months for details to emerge, then resolve 50% to each settlement option.
"Settled in favor of OpenAI" is massively undervalued given this. Do we really believe there's only a ~6% chance of a confidential settlement?
Under Cal. Corp. Code 5142, donors have no standing to sue charity, therefore Elon Musk has no standing. Courts generally dismissed such cases in the past.