What will be the outcome of the Elon Musk vs. OpenAI lawsuit?
164
610
4.3K
2025
68%
Case dismissed by court
12%
Settled in favor of Elon Musk
8%
Dropped by Elon Musk
5%
Verdict in favor of OpenAI
5%
Settled in favor of OpenAI
2%
Verdict in favor of Elon Musk

Close date may be extended as long as the outcome is unclear.

Resolution Details

Dropped by Elon Musk: Any time before a verdict has been rendered, Elon Musk withdraws the lawsuit without a settlement.

Settled in favor of Elon Musk: For any amount, damages, or even an admission of wrongdoing.

Settled in favor of OpenAI: A settlement that gives damages or other value to OpenAI. Not just dropping charges.

If the settlement involves an exchange on both sides, I will defer to the side which got more monetary value. If there is a hidden settlement, I'll wait a minimum of 6 months for details to emerge, then resolve 50% to each settlement option.

Verdict in favor of Elon Musk: Resolves YES if a court rules in favor for ANY claim or count in the lawsuit, except if OpenAI wins a counterclaim for a higher monetary value than all the verdicts in favor of Elon Musk.

Verdict in favor of OpenAI: Resolves YES if a court rules against Elon Musk for ALL claims in the lawsuit, or in favor of a counterclaim for higher monetary value than any verdicts that resolve against OpenAI.

Case dismissed by court: Due to lack of standing, jurisdiction, or merit

If there is an outcome that is not enumerated here, I reserve the right to split resolution or resolve N/A, but I will try my best not to. I will not bet. This market is about the initial lawsuit, not any appeals.

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OpenAI made a statement: "We intend to move to dismiss all of Elon's claims".

https://openai.com/blog/openai-elon-musk

Settled in favor of OpenAI
bought Ṁ10 Settled in favor of ... YES

If the settlement involves an exchange on both sides, I will defer to the side which got more monetary value. If there is a hidden settlement, I'll wait a minimum of 6 months for details to emerge, then resolve 50% to each settlement option.

"Settled in favor of OpenAI" is massively undervalued given this. Do we really believe there's only a ~6% chance of a confidential settlement?

bought Ṁ306 Case dismissed by court YES

Under Cal. Corp. Code 5142, donors have no standing to sue charity, therefore Elon Musk has no standing. Courts generally dismissed such cases in the past.

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