(destroyed as deterrence counts)
Resolves yes if I think chip fabs were destroyed with >80% confidence and resolves no if I think chip fabs weren't destroyed with >90% confidence, otherwise resolves ambiguously.
Resolves on Jan 1st 2030 or at any point I think substantial quantities of chip fabs were destroyed with >90% confidence.
I will determine 'substantial' subjectively, but intend it to mean something like "chip production is slowed by >40% for multiple years"
Edit: "global chip production is slowed by >40% for multiple years"
Manifold Market: Conditional on the PRC invading taiwan will the united states declare war on the PRC?
https://manifold.markets/ussgordoncaptain/conditional-on-the-prc-invading-tai
Manifold Market: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-china-launch-a-fullscale-invas
Will most of TSMC's 2022-existing fabs in Taiwan be destroyed by 2030?
https://manifold.markets/AlexKChen/will-most-of-tsmcs-2022existing-fab