Will a model costing >$30M be intentionally trained to be more mechanistically interpretable by end of 2027? (see desc)
Plus
30
Ṁ31362028
57%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will any language model costing >$30M be intentionally trained with modifications to be more mechanistically interpretable by 2027?
If the training-scheme with modifications is more than a small amount better for capabilities than the [possibly next] capabilities-best training scheme at the time (available to the model trainers), it doesn't count for the purposes of this market.
Modifications to architecture, optimizer, etc. The modifications must be made with the intention to make the model more interpretable.
Costing >$30M is in my estimation, the cost does not need to be published.
I will not trade in this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will Tesla sell >$1B of humanoid robots by 2030?
58% chance
Will 100K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2029?
65% chance
Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2030?
54% chance
Will 500K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2028?
38% chance
Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2031?
62% chance
Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2029?
45% chance
Will 2M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2029?
37% chance
Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2034?
66% chance
Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2028?
29% chance
Will 100K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2030?
72% chance