Will a model costing >$30M be intentionally trained to be more mechanistically interpretable by end of 2027? (see desc)
30
3.1k
2028
57%
chance

Will any language model costing >$30M be intentionally trained with modifications to be more mechanistically interpretable by 2027?

If the training-scheme with modifications is more than a small amount better for capabilities than the [possibly next] capabilities-best training scheme at the time (available to the model trainers), it doesn't count for the purposes of this market.

Modifications to architecture, optimizer, etc. The modifications must be made with the intention to make the model more interpretable.

Costing >$30M is in my estimation, the cost does not need to be published.

I will not trade in this market.

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