If China invades Taiwan in 2023-2030, what will FLOP/s per dollar of top-ML GPUs be 10 years later? | Manifold

If China invades Taiwan in 2023-2030, what will FLOP/s per dollar of top-ML GPUs be 10 years later?

5

Ṁ1.1kṀ135

2040

8%

<0.5x FLOP/s per dollar

11%

0.5-1x FLOP/s per dollar

11%

1-2x FLOP/s per dollar

24%

2-4x FLOP/s per dollar

18%

4-8x FLOP/s per dollar

29%

>8x FLOP/s per dollar

IE what wil the ratio of top-ML GPU FLOP/s per dollar 10 years after invasion be to top-ML GPU FLOP/s per dollar before invasion.

I'll use the resolution criteria of this Metaculus question to operationalize invasion:
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/?sub-question=10880f

https://epochai.org/blog/trends-in-gpu-price-performance

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