On a recent episode of the Bg2 Pod, Sam Altman (CEO of OpenAI) was aaked about how OpenAI can have a reported $13ish billion usd in revenue and yet have over $1 trillion in spending commitments over the next years.

Sam had a lot to say, but as part of his response said, "There are not many times I want to be a public company, but one of the rare times that it's appealing is when those people are writing these ridiculous, 'OpenAI is about to go out of business,'....I would love to tell them they could just short the stock, and I would love to see them get burned on that."

article about this here: https://www.businessinsider.com/sam-altman-defends-openai-trillion-spending-2025-11

Youtube video of podcast here: https://youtu.be/Gnl833wXRz0?si=hYqgzVM7qjlzjS-n (see ~12:00 mark for the question)

This is a modest attempt to operationalize that, and I highly encourage any OpenAI bulls and bears to buy YES and NO respectively in this market.

Each question will resolve YES if the below happens on or before the question's indicated date, and if either of the following occurs:

A) OpenAI files for chapter 7 or 11 bankruptcy

B) OpenAI lays off approxmately all employees and ceases nearly all revenue generating activity (let's say 90% of last reported numbers as of the most recent major publication prior to the cuts from a major journalistic outlet (decided by me) or the OpenAI nonprofit itself.

Otherwise, the question resolves NO.

I will probably add more options as time moves forward.

Important details:

OpenAI is one of the most covered companies on the planet, but I will not be resolving each question immediately. I will wait a few days after each question's end date to ensure that something didn't come out I missed overnight, and in the event it does, exactly when the filing or layoffs occurred.

If you have concerns about resolution criteria please let me know in comments or direct messages.