On a recent episode of the Bg2 Pod, Sam Altman (CEO of OpenAI) was aaked about how OpenAI can have a reported $13ish billion usd in revenue and yet have over $1 trillion in spending commitments over the next years.
Sam had a lot to say, but as part of his response said, "There are not many times I want to be a public company, but one of the rare times that it's appealing is when those people are writing these ridiculous, 'OpenAI is about to go out of business,'....I would love to tell them they could just short the stock, and I would love to see them get burned on that."
article about this here: https://www.businessinsider.com/sam-altman-defends-openai-trillion-spending-2025-11
Youtube video of podcast here: https://youtu.be/Gnl833wXRz0?si=hYqgzVM7qjlzjS-n (see ~12:00 mark for the question)
This is a modest attempt to operationalize that, and I highly encourage any OpenAI bulls and bears to buy YES and NO respectively in this market.
Each question will resolve YES if the below happens on or before the question's indicated date, and if either of the following occurs:
A) OpenAI files for chapter 7 or 11 bankruptcy
B) OpenAI lays off approxmately all employees and ceases nearly all revenue generating activity (let's say 90% of last reported numbers as of the most recent major publication prior to the cuts from a major journalistic outlet (decided by me) or the OpenAI nonprofit itself.
Otherwise, the question resolves NO.
I will probably add more options as time moves forward.
Important details:
OpenAI is one of the most covered companies on the planet, but I will not be resolving each question immediately. I will wait a few days after each question's end date to ensure that something didn't come out I missed overnight, and in the event it does, exactly when the filing or layoffs occurred.
If you have concerns about resolution criteria please let me know in comments or direct messages.
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@traders Would any of you object to @Simon74fe 's suggestion for an additional potential manner by which OpenAI could "go out of business" (resolve YES) to spice up the market? To screenshot:
As of the most recent round of funding, the company was valued at $500 billion, to my knowledge. In other words, if OpenAI was acquired by any company in the future for a price less than $500 billion, these questions would resolve YES (where the dates listed applied).
I will give everyone five days to reply to this comment or make an original comment in opposition. If even a few people voice opposition to this, I will not add this criteria, as I would like to preserve the integrity of the market and its current evaluations as much as possible, but I think it fits somewhat well with the market spirit, and for a market such as this it's a relatively early addendum since in the short term future (by Manifold's evaluation and others') there seems to be no looming changes to the OpenAI status quo.
@No_uh I would be more comfortable with that criteria if it was lower, probably below half of current valuation. I think there's a world where the current valuation is proven to be overinflated and it settles lower than that but is still clearly "in business". Not a strong preference, would probably keep holding my positions either way.
@AlexanderTheGreater Yes, I'm currently considering either including this in the resolution criteria or making a new question about this, but for the hour or so I was working on making this market I couldn't exactly come up with a definitive, clear, criteria which would allow me to discern an acquisition brought on by serious financial strife and distress, or a more typical acquisition.
@No_uh One criterion could acquisition valuation, if that is significantly below their 2025 valuation? (would also fit with him mentioning short selling)
@Simon74fe I agree that would be good. A clearer indicator than massive layoffs after acquisition for example.
@Simon74fe thank you for suggesting this. i will ping the traders about this later to make sure adding it as a possible YES resolution criteria is okay!
@wasabipesto sorry, I adjusted the year dates on the high 2, you should have time to fix them. sorry about that.