According to reports, OpenAI is now in damage-control mode after having been bested by Google's models on nearly all benchmarks.

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if OpenAI either collapses (becomes insolvent or ceases operations) or is acquired by another company before completing an initial public offering. Resolution is based on public announcements from OpenAI, acquiring parties, or regulatory filings (SEC filings, bankruptcy court documents). The market resolves NO if OpenAI successfully completes an IPO. If OpenAI files for IPO but the offering is withdrawn or fails to complete, the market resolves YES.

Background

OpenAI is considering filing paperwork with regulators as soon as the second half of 2026, with CFO Sarah Friar telling some associates the firm is aiming for a 2027 IPO. In early 2025, OpenAI raised $40 billion at a $300 billion valuation, and completed its restructure to a public benefit corporation with Microsoft receiving a 27% ownership stake.

However, OpenAI faces significant financial headwinds. OpenAI expects negative cash flow of around $8 billion this year, and the company has already committed $1.4 trillion in infrastructure through deals with partners including Oracle, Nvidia, SoftBank and AMD, with Altman seeking to increase spending to $20 billion per week. Compute costs remain extreme, energy usage is ballooning, and profit margins are under pressure, with heavy dependence on Microsoft's cloud and Nvidia's hardware limiting OpenAI's pricing power.

Considerations

Several factors could postpone or prevent OpenAI from going public: regulatory pressure on AI accountability and antitrust, market volatility affecting tech IPO appetite, lawsuits tied to AI misuse and content liability, and governance friction between the nonprofit board and public shareholder priorities. As part of its latest fundraising round, the company must convert its structure to a for-profit entity by December 2025 or risk losing a $22.5 billion funding commitment and facing investor clawbacks.