tl;dr: Essentially, this resolves YES if Mark Carney wins the Canadian PM election, and Tumbles pays back my loan on time. It resolves NO otherwise. (This is a lossy simplification of the resolution logic)

I have ended up in a "curious" position on the market for the winner of the Canada PM election (linked below). I have bet 6500 Mana on Mark Carney winning the election at 77%, with a potential payout of 8441 Mana. At the same time, I have loaned @Tumbles 5000 Mana, to be paid back with 100% interest by June 8th. Tumbles has mostly been betting loan money on Pierre Poilievre winning, so the chance of Tumbles paying back my loan is likely correlated with the result of the PM election. (to put it mildly)

This resolves YES if my payout from the linked market, plus all Mana Tumbles sends me before June 9th, is greater than 11,500. Changes in my position in the Canada PM market after this market is created will be ignored for the purpose of this calculation (i.e, if I bet/sell in that market in the future, I will treat the result as if I hadn't). The same goes for any further loans I give. Otherwise, this resolves NO on June 9th.

5/6 clarification: Tthe resolution criteria as written should arguably resolve YES because Tumbles sent me 10,000 counterfeit Mana. I think it's more appropriate to go with the spirit of the market, so I won't be resolving YES (yet). However, also in the spirit of the market, I am tentatively planning on resolving YES if someone buys my debt for at least M3060 on behalf of Tumbles. (Or if there is some other similar payment scheme that pays me at least M3060 for the debt before the due date)