Each option resolves at a % corresponding to the % of the House Democratic Caucus that is also a member of the ideological caucus listed, out of the given options.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, New Democrat Coalition, followed by Congressional Progressive Caucus and NDC and CPC are most likely. See the market for live updates (1 traders, as of Jul 3, 2026).

What will be the ideological caucus membership in the Democratic House Caucus following the 2026 midterms?

Will a Democrat win these US House races in 2026?

Which New York House Districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms?

Which ideological shifts will the Democratic party make by the 2026 midterms? (Resolves to poll)

What will be the ideological caucus membership in the Republican House Caucus following the 2026 midterms?

[RESOLVES JANUARY 31] Will the Senate majority leader and speaker of the house both be Democrats after the 2026 midterms

62% chance

What party will hold the House of Representatives after the 2026 midterms

How many congressmen in the House will be members of the New Democrat Coalition caucus after the 2026 midterms?

89.2

How many congressmen in the House will be members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus after the 2026 midterms?

78.4

Democratic Leaders in Congress after 2026 elections?

How many congressmen in the House will be members of the Blue Dog Coalition caucus after the 2026 midterms?

9.6

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