Each option resolves at a % corresponding to the % of the House Democratic Caucus that is also a member of the ideological caucus listed, out of the given options.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, New Democrat Coalition, followed by Congressional Progressive Caucus and NDC and CPC are most likely. See the market for live updates (1 traders, as of Jul 3, 2026).

What will be the ideological caucus membership in the Democratic House Caucus following the 2026 midterms?

Democratic Popular vote percent in the 2026 house elections?

Will a Democrat win these US House races in 2026?

What will be the ideological caucus membership in the Republican House Caucus following the 2026 midterms?

Which ideological shifts will the Democratic party make by the 2026 midterms? (Resolves to poll)

Will the Democratic party win more than 240 US house seats in the 2026 election?

+6% 1d23% chance

How many congressmen in the House will be members of the New Democrat Coalition caucus after the 2026 midterms?

89.2

If Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms, will they also win the Senate?

54% chance

How many congressmen in the House will be members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus after the 2026 midterms?

78.4

Will Democrats win more than 230 seats in the House in the 2026 midterms?

49% chance

Will Democrats have 225 or more seats after the 2026 House Elections?

71% chance

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