Each option resolves at a % corresponding to the % of the House Democratic Caucus that is also a member of the ideological caucus listed, out of the given options.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, New Democrat Coalition, followed by Congressional Progressive Caucus and NDC and CPC are most likely. See the market for live updates (1 traders, as of Jul 3, 2026).

What will be the ideological caucus membership in the Democratic House Caucus following the 2026 midterms?

What will be the ideological caucus membership in the Republican House Caucus following the 2026 midterms?

Will Democrats win more than 230 seats in the House in the 2026 midterms?

+4% 1d30% chance

Will a Democrat win these US House races in 2026?

Which ideological shifts will the Democratic party make by the 2026 midterms? (Resolves to poll)

How many congressmen in the House will be members of the New Democrat Coalition caucus after the 2026 midterms?

89.2

How many congressmen in the House will be members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus after the 2026 midterms?

78.4

Democratic Leaders in Congress after 2026 elections?

How many congressmen in the House will be members of the Blue Dog Coalition caucus after the 2026 midterms?

9.6

What party will hold the House of Representatives after the 2026 midterms

Will Democrats win a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections?

83% chance

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