Each option resolves at a % corresponding to the % of the House Republican Caucus that is also a member of the ideological caucus listed, out of the given options.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Republican Study Committee, followed by RSC and Freedom Caucus and RGG and RSC are most likely. See the market for live updates (2 traders, as of Jul 3, 2026).

What will be the ideological caucus membership in the Republican House Caucus following the 2026 midterms?

Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?

13% chance

Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?

16% chance

What will be the ideological caucus membership in the Democratic House Caucus following the 2026 midterms?

How many congressmen in the House will be members of the Republican Governance Group caucus after the 2026 midterms?

28.1

How many congressmen in the House will be members of the Republican Study Committee caucus after the 2026 midterms?

142.0

How many congressmen in the House will be members of the Freedom Caucus after the 2026 midterms?

24.1

What party will hold the House of Representatives after the 2026 midterms

How many congressmen in the House will be members of the New Democrat Coalition caucus after the 2026 midterms?

89.2

How many House seats will the GOP lose in 2026?

Which ideological shifts will the Democratic party make by the 2026 midterms? (Resolves to poll)

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