Currently there is one such market:
https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964
This will resolve to the option that covers the time when the next crystal market is created (on Manifold). If precise timing is relevant, I will use GMT as the time zone to base the decision on.
I will also count a market being upgraded to crystal. In this case, this resolves based on the time of the subsidy that put the market over the crystal threshold.
All date ranges are inclusive (i.e. October 2024 - December 2024 would include 12/30/2024)
If no crystal market is created by 2027, or crystal markets stop being a thing before the next one is created, this will resolve to "After 2026/No more crystal markets are created".
I will not bet on this market.
1,000People are also trading
Well, a bunch of new crystal markets have appeared, but technically none were made or upgraded. Thoughts on if this should resolve? @traders
@Nightsquared I think a 100k market created before that was superficially relabeled as “crystal” because they changed the name is pretty obviously not in the spirit of this market but ultimately it’s up to you the description doesn’t point either way
People might bet for two reasons. To make money, or to try to make the probability better. Crystal's supposed to incentivize the former. But interest rates mean that, for a market that resolves in ten years, there's not much reason to bet on it because you could bet in shorter term markets instead and win faster. And a high subsidy makes the latter kind of metaculus-style betting harder
If you're referring to something like this:
https://manifold.markets/case/the-crystal-coin-flip
then yes, that would count